DEVELOPMENT METHODOLOGY
Learn how the CMSV was developed.
The Contraceptive Market Size Visualizer (CMSV) provides two different analyses of the contraceptive market size in the selected countries: a) the subnational market size estimation and b) the national volume and value estimation. Each analysis has its specific method, but terms and definitions are consistent.
| Terminology | Definition applied |
| Current users | Women using a modern contraceptive method |
| Women with an unmet need | Women who do not want to become pregnant and who are not currently using any method of contraception |
| Traditional method users | Women who use a traditional method to prevent pregnancy, including withdrawal, periodic abstinence, herbal methods and others |
| Private sector | Includes for-profit, non-profit, social marketing, and faith-based organizations, shops/kiosk |
| Public sector | Government, friend/relative/neighbor |
| Short-term contraceptive methods | Condoms, oral contraceptive pills, injectables, emergency contraceptive pills |
| Long-acting reversible methods | Intrauterine device, implant |
| Financial capacity | Women living in a household within the third wealth quintile or above |
Subnational Market Size Estimator
To estimate the subnational proportion of the population for each indicator, we applied a Bayesian hierarchical model framework, as described by Mercer, Lu, and Proctor,1 that integrates multiple surveys, survey designs, and levels of uncertainty and allows for a spatiotemporal smoothing of estimates. The hierarchical Bayesian space-time model was fit using the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) package in R.2 We computed the median estimates for each indicator at the specified administrative level. Please see the report in Nepal for details of the models and model selection.
The model yields a proportion that we then convert to absolute population estimates for each category. To determine the population value associated with each indicator rate, we multiplied the estimated indicator rate by the appropriate sub-population value (e.g., all women of reproductive age), as described in the most recent census result, for the same geographic area. Finally, we displayed results on maps at the district or provincial level, as appropriate.
National Volume and Value Estimator
To estimate the national level current and potential market size of the private sector, we calculated the number of clients, volume and value for a full year’s protection for several key contraceptive products for the year 2025 (see figure).
Each of the above four group sizes is estimated from the most recent census with the population projected to 2025 by the estimated population growth rate 3,4, multiplied by family planning use and need proportions in the most recently available DHS. Not all potential users of the private sector will become users. The totals are scaled down based upon 4 assumptions, and country-specific research. Please refer to the report for the corresponding country for the specific studies that we drew evidence.
Estimating the number of clients by type of contraceptive method
The number of clients using each modern method can vary, based upon hypothetical changes to the method mix. Along with estimating the potential number of new private sector clients, we expanded our number of possible private sector scenarios by considering three different private sector contraceptive method mixes.
- Method mix scenario 1: Maintaining the country’s current private sector method mix.
- Method mix scenario 2: Country-specific intervention or policy change.
- Method mix scenario 3: The increase in popularity of implants, as a scenario, is taken from the FP Market Analyzer. They define this scenario as: the popularity of implant doubles in the overall method mix, up to a maximum of 40%, and the private sector utilization of LARCs increases by 20 percentage points.
Estimating volume and value by type of contraceptive method
The total volume for short-term methods is estimated using its respective Couple-Years of Protection (CYP) 5 factor. The total volume for long-acting reversible methods is estimated to be the same as the number of users who obtained that method from the private sector. Private sector market value was estimated by multiplying the annual units sold for each method by its country-specific average retail price.
References:
- Mercer LD, Lu F, Proctor JL. Sub-national levels and trends in contraceptive prevalence, unmet need, and demand for family planning in Nigeria with survey uncertainty. BMC Public Health. 2019;19(1):1752. doi:10.1186/s12889-019-8043-z
- Lindgren F, Rue H. Bayesian Spatial Modelling with R-INLA. Journal of Statistical Software. 2015;63:1-25. doi:10.18637/jss.v063.i19
- United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2022). World Population Prospects 2022, Online Edition.
- Spatial Data Repository – Population Estimates [Internet]. [cited 2024 Apr 24]. Available from: https://spatialdata.dhsprogram.com/population-estimates/
- Couple-Years of Protection (CYP) | Global Health | Health Areas | Family Planning and Reproductive Health. U.S. Agency for International Development. Published December 4, 2023. Accessed September 1, 2023. https://www.usaid.gov/global-health/health-areas/family-planning/couple-years-protection-cyp
CMSV Resources
Contraceptive Market Size Visualizer
The Contraceptive Market Size Visualizer (CMSV) provides two different analyses of contraceptive market size in Nepal, Kenya and Ghana.
Interpretation
Using recent national surveys and census information, the subnational market size estimation serves to illustrate the distribution of contraceptive users and those with contraceptive needs.
Frequently Asked Questions
Have more questions? See if they are answered in our FAQ section.
Example Case Uses
How could a contraceptive wholesaler, non-profit service provision organization, or regional family planning program implementer use the CMSV?
LEARN MORE
Contact us to learn how Metrics for Management can help you use targeted, accurate and measurable data to expand and improve your services.
This tool is made possible by the generous support of the American people through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) under the terms of cooperative agreement no. 7200AA21CA00027 (2021-2026). The contents are the responsibility of Chemonics International and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government.
Except as otherwise noted or as identified below, the data provided by the Contraceptive Market Size Visualizer (CMSV) is licensed* under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International. To view a copy of this licence, visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/. (*note: license limited to created data only.)
Material that is not licensed under a Creative Commons licence is:
• USAID logo • FHM Engage logo • CARTO maps, basemaps or associated imagery • Website or App Photographs or images • World map image on CMSV webpage
All content not licensed under a Creative Commons licence is all rights reserved, and you must request permission from the copyright owner to use this material.
